Danger Below Treeline Northwest US--Trained NWAC (V1) 4/21/2018
Experimental--Not For Hazard Evaluation!
Please visit NWAC to use the official forecast for this region if you are making backcountry travel plans.
Forecasting has ended for the season as our training data doesn't currently extend past Mid-April. We will be writing up and publishing an analysis of how OAP forecasts did this season as well as what we learned and what we will be improving over the summer. Check back soon.
How To Read This Forecast
Use the model selector on the top bar to select other forecast types. Models ending in "NW" cover the northwest only and have an accuracy value, models not ending in NW cover the Western US and do not have an accuracy value.
The current forecast is only interpretable in mountainous regions which overlapp existing forecast areas
The current forecasts produced do not distinguish between mountainous and non-mountainous regions and produce uninterpretable results in non-mountainous regions.
It's on the backlog to remove forecasts in areas which are uninterpretable.
If accuracy ratings are provided they are only applicable against the existing Northwest Avalanche Center Forecast Regions.
The avalanche danger scale is available here
The V1 model has trained with data from the Northwest Avalanche Center (2013/2014 season through 2016/2017 season)
Areas with no forecast but which are in mountainous regions likely lack Snotel data within a reasonable distance. The model currently depends on snotel data within 160kms to produce a forecast.
This forecast is experimental and is not intended for hazard evaluation. The data may be incorrect or misleading. The user acknowledges that it is impossible to accurately predict natural events such as avalanches in every instance, and the accuracy or reliability of the data provided here is not guaranteed in any way. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations will always occur.
Warning: Models/Data deployed for the 17-18 season had poor forcast accuracy. We are working on both improved models and improved accuracy evaluation for the 18-19 season.